<![CDATA[Analyst Reports - Global Prime]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/en-usSun, 20 May 2012 11:08:01 -1000Sun, 20 May 2012 11:08:01 -1000daniel.silver@gleneaglesecurities.com<![CDATA[Trade Ideas May 16, 2012]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/trade-ideas-may-16-2012/Short TradesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Short Sell TLS  $3.45 $3.65 16/05/2012 Stopped outRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Short SellWDC   $9.15$9.57 1605/2012 Stopped outLong TradesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Long BuyQAN $1.65$1.4316/05/2012
  • Correction in Virgin from peak to trough was 18% before a 10% rebound since our recommendation. QAN has now corrected 17% and is in line with the massive area of support across 1.45/1.44.
  • QAN must hold here and with reversal in VAH, falling jet fuel prices and interest rate cuts PLUS court ruling last week of now pilot industrial action permitted, much of the downward pressure on the share price is now alleviated. Could see a very aggressive rebound and $1.65 is only a first target.
  • We like QAN longer-term and therefore, trading opportunities should first be centred around stocks that are positively viewed over the medium term.
  • Technical indicators are oversold and occurring in line with key support. This is the point of a low risk buy.
  • Still view QAN as a highly probable takeover target. 
RecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Long BuySTO $13.80$12.3016/05/2012
  • Oil prices have been hit hard and could have a decent rebound with a slight shift in sentiment
  • STO has fallen to oversold levels on two prior occasions in the past two years – Sept 2010 and August 2011. Both resulted in very sharp reversals and aggressive rebounds.
  • This is an opportune time to step up and take advantage of the sudden share price drop at the hands of broad oil price volatility while underlying fundamentals and gas outlook locally remain unchanged.
  • As soon as first rebound occurs stop loss will be adjusted to just under most recent low. 
Bank Buy ZonesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated BuyNAB24.70 - 24.40   14/05/2012Buy (div adjusted)ANZ22.20 - 21.80  14/05/2012Buy WBC22.45 - 22.25  14/05/2012Buy CBA51.50 - 51.30   14/05/2012Portfolio LongsRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated AccumulateAIX    AccumulateTCL    AccumulateSYD    AccumulateQAN     AccumulateVAH< $0.41+ $0.80 16/05/2012AccumulateIIN    AccumulateGCS    Long BuyMQG $34.50$26.7516/05/2012Long BuyFKP $0.65$0.4716/05/2012Accumulate Property trusts - see full report.
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Wed, 16 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/trade-ideas-may-16-2012/<![CDATA[Forex Analysis May 14, 2012]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/forex-analysis-may-14-2012/

FX UPDATE: Major Currencies are Testing Major Chart Points

The hopes of producing an end to the political deadlock in Greece have been dashed again today as last ditch talks between party leaders ended in rancor, mutual recrimination and no coalition agreement. As such, fresh elections next month look increasingly likely.

FX markets have responded with a spike in volatility and moves out of long-worn trading ranges including 1.2900 in the EUR/USD, 1.610 in the GBP/USD and parity in the AUD/USD.

The rally in the USD looks strong and sustainable but is built largely on the fact that the Greenback is the least ugly of the major currencies rather than on positive U.S. economic developments.

Data over the next few days will not help to provide much clarity on the U.S. economy with April retail sales forecasted to be soft and the FOMC minutes unlikely to deliver much new information. Even so, risk aversion is intensifying, giving the USD firm support against the major crosses with wide intraday ranges.

The EUR/USD in particular has sustained a drop below the psychologically important 1.300 level, touching 1.2880 in the Asian session today. The 1.2850 level will be crucial support and may take a few tries to sustain a break to lower prices. The Euro group meeting of finance ministers should lend some support early in the week allowing the single currency to regain the 1.2900 handle. Short term traders can look to sell on a bounce back to 1.2970 to 90.

The AUD/USD dipped below 1.0000 for a few minutes this morning but has since recovered to 1.0025. Historical charts show that the parity level can hold as a consolidation level before moving sharply in either direction. With the PBoC’s move to lower Reserve Requirement ratios (RRR) over the weekend and the RBA in easing mode, the AUD/USD has scope to bounce back into the 1.0100 area before a more sustained break below parity and back to the December levels.

The UK employment report on Wednesday will be the key data point for the direction of the sterling this week. The GBP/USD found support at the 30 day moving average of 1.6050 earlier today, but the shorter term indicators are still very weak. With sterling still adjusting to lower prices on the cross rates with the EUR and CHF, a bounce back to 1.6100 would be a good spot to re-establish short positions.

From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY has the most bullish chart pattern for the week (see chart). Potentially bullish comments from BoJ officials aside, the USD/JPY looks set to break out higher after a narrow consolidation pattern from 79.90 to 79.60 last week. The daily parabolic switch point is now at 80.30 and falling 10 pips per day. A break of the parabolic level will trigger fresh buying and target the 81.40 level.

Information in this report was sourced from Bloomberg and FX Street, charts from Global Prime Trader

Todd Deiterich

 

Todd Deiterichis an authorised representative #365967 of Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74146086017 AFSL 385620

Todd Deiterich has been a registered advisor in both the USA and Australia for over 27 years. During this time, Todd has developed a trading focus aimed primarily at the Foreign Exchange and Interest Rate products.

Todd's financial industry experience includes reconciliation of managed foreign exchange products, execution of institutional and private client transactions and writing a bi-weekly market commentary for in-house advisors and wholesale clients.

Since 2009, Todd has appeared in the US Federal Court as a judicial advocate. foreign exchange expert witness.

To contact Todd:
Call +61 7 5634 6781
Email todd.deiterich@globalprime.com.au

 
]]>Mon, 14 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/forex-analysis-may-14-2012/<![CDATA[Santos Ltd Long Buy Recommendation]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/santos-ltd-long-buy-recommendation/

Santos Ltd

  • Oil prices have been hit hard and could have a decent rebound with a slight shift in sentiment
  • STO has fallen to oversold levels on two prior occasions in the past two years – Sept 2010 and August 2011. Both resulted in very sharp reversals and aggressive rebounds.
  • This is an opportune time to step up and take advantage of the sudden share price drop at the hands of broad oil price volatility while underlying fundamentals and gas outlook locally remain unchanged.
  • As soon as first rebound occurs stop loss will be adjusted to just under most recent low.
 
Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)
RecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated 
Long BuySTO  $13.80  $12.3014/05/2012 
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Mon, 14 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/santos-ltd-long-buy-recommendation/<![CDATA[Qantas Long Buy Recommendation]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/qantas-long-buy-recommendation/

Qantas Airways

  • Correction in Virgin from peak to trough was 18% before a 10% rebound since our recommendation. QAN has now corrected 17% and is in line with the massive area of support across 1.45/1.44.
  • QAN must hold here and with reversal in VAH, falling jet fuel prices and interest rate cuts PLUS court ruling last week of now pilot industrial action permitted, much of the downward pressure on the share price is now alleviated. Could see a very aggressive rebound and $1.65 is only a first target.
  • We like QAN longer-term and therefore, trading opportunities should first be centred around stocks that are positively viewed over the medium term.
  • Technical indicators are oversold and occurring in line with key support. This is the point of a low risk buy.
  • Still view QAN as a highly probable takeover target. 
 
Qantas Airways (ASX: QAN)
RecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated 
Long BuyQAN  $1.65 $1.43 14/05/2012 
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Mon, 14 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/qantas-long-buy-recommendation/<![CDATA[Trade Ideas May 14, 2012]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/trade-ideas-may-14-2012/Short TradesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Short Sell TLS  $3.45 $3.65 09/05/2012 
  • Share price has experienced an exceptional rally following management decision to return proceeds of NBN to shareholders via higher dividends. The subsequent rally has been justified however, given the short-term overbought nature of the stock and the broader market volatility, potential exists for a short-correction.
  • Typically such stocks can defy the broader market direction for a few days/weeks but inevitably experiencing profit taking and panic selling.
  • Just as indicators back in March gave buy signals, same signals suggesting the recent rally has run its course. 
RecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Short SellWDC   $9.15$9.57 0905/2012 
  • Similar to TLS, recent rally has seen prices reach near-overbought conditions and some important resistance levels. Prices looked stretched and inevitably WDC has shown that even within its broad uptrends prices experience some short sharp price swings. 
Long TradesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Long BuyQAN $1.65$1.4314/05/2012
  • Correction in Virgin from peak to trough was 18% before a 10% rebound since our recommendation. QAN has now corrected 17% and is in line with the massive area of support across 1.45/1.44.
  • QAN must hold here and with reversal in VAH, falling jet fuel prices and interest rate cuts PLUS court ruling last week of now pilot industrial action permitted, much of the downward pressure on the share price is now alleviated. Could see a very aggressive rebound and $1.65 is only a first target.
  • We like QAN longer-term and therefore, trading opportunities should first be centred around stocks that are positively viewed over the medium term.
  • Technical indicators are oversold and occurring in line with key support. This is the point of a low risk buy.
  • Still view QAN as a highly probable takeover target. 
RecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Long BuySTO $13.80$12.3014/05/2012
  • Oil prices have been hit hard and could have a decent rebound with a slight shift in sentiment
  • STO has fallen to oversold levels on two prior occasions in the past two years – Sept 2010 and August 2011. Both resulted in very sharp reversals and aggressive rebounds.
  • This is an opportune time to step up and take advantage of the sudden share price drop at the hands of broad oil price volatility while underlying fundamentals and gas outlook locally remain unchanged.
  • As soon as first rebound occurs stop loss will be adjusted to just under most recent low. 
Bank Buy ZonesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated BuyNAB24.70 - 24.40   14/05/2012Buy (div adjusted)ANZ22.20 - 21.80  14/05/2012Buy WBC22.45 - 22.25  14/05/2012Buy CBA51.50 - 51.30   14/05/2012Portfolio LongsRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated AccumulateAIX    AccumulateTCL    AccumulateSYD    AccumulateQAN     AccumulateVAH< $0.41+ $0.80 14/05/2012AccumulateIIN    AccumulateGCS    Long BuyMQG $34.50$26.7514/05/2012Long BuyFKP $0.65$0.4714/05/2012Accumulate Property trusts - see full report.
 

Morning Analysis

  • Eurozone debt issues are resurfacing which are adding to downward pressure on equities and further cementing our short term negative view, while also supporting the outlook for QE3 from the Fed in 2nd half 2012.
  • Price action continues to be broadly choppy and performance in line with our outlook is set to continue. Focus still remains on downside limit of 1315/1310
  • Price action is very similar to April-June 2011 where QE2 was drawing to a close. Operation “twist” ends in June 2012.
  • Continue to expect the characteristics of this consolidation to be 3-5 days down touching a new retracement low and then recovering sharply for 2-3 days. Similar price action in the April-June period of 2010 & 2011.
  • POTENTIAL LOW POINT forming with a rebound over the next  2-4 days possible, creating opportunity to trade some oversold stocks
  • On weakness we are likely to begin to see talk of potential QE3 emerging which is still our assumption for July-August. Fed cannot afford to let this economic recovery stall, particularly housing market.
  • New highs to be seen after this pullback is complete in 2nd half of 2012. Until then there is no need to chase stocks or breakouts.
  • ASX 200 back towards a strong area of support, where we could begin to see buying interest return.
  • Potential for short-term rebound in oversold resources and longer-term buying interest in interest rate sensitive stocks.
  • ASX 200 has returned to our nominated support around 4250/4200 – trendline from the August lows. A break of this would signal – BHP and RIO breaking to new multi-year lows with prolonged underperformance and a steeper correction in the index to 4150/4050.
  • Better buying levels emerging in coming weeks that we have discussed in the past fortnight are now surfacing and slowly accumulating favoured stocks can begin. But with caution as choppy price action is still expected for the coming 6-8 weeks, at least.
  • Aside from a short-term bounce in some resources, sector will still underperform and buy and hold at this point is not recommended. Short-term trades only.
  • Stocks benefiting from weak A$ also poised to enjoy broader support
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Mon, 14 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/trade-ideas-may-14-2012/<![CDATA[Morning Analysis May 14, 2012]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/morning-analysis-may-14-2012/

Morning Analysis

  • Eurozone debt issues are resurfacing which are adding to downward pressure on equities and further cementing our short term negative view, while also supporting the outlook for QE3 from the Fed in 2nd half 2012.
  • Price action continues to be broadly choppy and performance in line with our outlook is set to continue. Focus still remains on downside limit of 1315/1310
  • Price action is very similar to April-June 2011 where QE2 was drawing to a close. Operation “twist” ends in June 2012.
  • Continue to expect the characteristics of this consolidation to be 3-5 days down touching a new retracement low and then recovering sharply for 2-3 days. Similar price action in the April-June period of 2010 & 2011.
  • POTENTIAL LOW POINT forming with a rebound over the next  2-4 days possible, creating opportunity to trade some oversold stocks
  • On weakness we are likely to begin to see talk of potential QE3 emerging which is still our assumption for July-August. Fed cannot afford to let this economic recovery stall, particularly housing market.
  • New highs to be seen after this pullback is complete in 2nd half of 2012. Until then there is no need to chase stocks or breakouts.
  • ASX 200 back towards a strong area of support, where we could begin to see buying interest return.
  • Potential for short-term rebound in oversold resources and longer-term buying interest in interest rate sensitive stocks.
  • ASX 200 has returned to our nominated support around 4250/4200 – trendline from the August lows. A break of this would signal – BHP and RIO breaking to new multi-year lows with prolonged underperformance and a steeper correction in the index to 4150/4050.
  • Better buying levels emerging in coming weeks that we have discussed in the past fortnight are now surfacing and slowly accumulating favoured stocks can begin. But with caution as choppy price action is still expected for the coming 6-8 weeks, at least.
  • Aside from a short-term bounce in some resources, sector will still underperform and buy and hold at this point is not recommended. Short-term trades only.
  • Stocks benefiting from weak A$ also poised to enjoy broader support
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Mon, 14 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/morning-analysis-may-14-2012/<![CDATA[Westfield Short Sell Recommendation]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/westfield-short-sell-recommendation/

Westfield Group

  • Similar to TLS, recent rally has seen prices reach near-overbought conditions and some important resistance levels. Prices looked stretched and inevitably WDC has shown that even within its broad uptrends prices experience some short sharp price swings. 
 
Westfield Group (ASX: WDC)
RecommendationCodePriceTargetStop Last updated 
Short SellWDC  $9.15  $9.5709/05/2012 
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Wed, 09 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/westfield-short-sell-recommendation/<![CDATA[Telstra Short Sell Recommendation]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/telstra-short-sell-recommendation/

Telstra Corporation

  • Share price has experienced an exceptional rally following management decision to return proceeds of NBN to shareholders via higher dividends. The subsequent rally has been justified however, given the short-term overbought nature of the stock and the broader market volatility, potential exists for a short-correction.
  • Typically such stocks can defy the broader market direction for a few days/weeks but inevitably experiencing profit taking and panic selling.
  • Just as indicators back in March gave buy signals, same signals suggesting the recent rally has run its course. 
 
Telstra Corporation (ASX: TLS)
RecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated 
Short SellTLS $3.45 $3.65 09/05/2012 
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Wed, 09 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/telstra-short-sell-recommendation/<![CDATA[Trade Ideas May 9, 2012]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/trade-ideas-may-9-2012/Short TradesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Short Sell TLS  $3.45 $3.65 09/05/2012 
  • Share price has experienced an exceptional rally following management decision to return proceeds of NBN to shareholders via higher dividends. The subsequent rally has been justified however, given the short-term overbought nature of the stock and the broader market volatility, potential exists for a short-correction.
  • Typically such stocks can defy the broader market direction for a few days/weeks but inevitably experiencing profit taking and panic selling.
  • Just as indicators back in March gave buy signals, same signals suggesting the recent rally has run its course. 
Short SellWDC   $9.15$9.57 0905/2012 
  • Similar to TLS, recent rally has seen prices reach near-overbought conditions and some important resistance levels. Prices looked stretched and inevitably WDC has shown that even within its broad uptrends prices experience some short sharp price swings. 
Long TradesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated Long BuyFKP  $0.65 $0.47 07/05/2012
  • Broad property trust revaluation underway in line with our previous comments and view of RBA cash rate dropping to 3.00/3.25% by 2012-end. FKP is yet to participate.
  • NTA - $1.22
  • Downside is extremely limited considering its massive discount.
  • Rallied strongly in January (which we recommended as a trade) and identical price action is being witnessed again.
  • At some point the potential for a sharp rally will surface with market rumours potentially for Stockland or Mulpha Group (Malaysian) to launch a takeover. Currently SGP owns 14.32% and Mulpha 25.61%.
  • Company has been pressured by the slow residential sales with time to settlement increasing inline with the broader Australian economic slowdown (already known)
  • Aerial apartment project had been deferred with settlement to be in first quarter of FY13, impacting FY12 results (already factored in).
  • Gearing 30.9% < company targeted gearing of 35%
  • With rate cuts looming, expect headwinds to dissipate and huge leverage to property turnaround to have a rapid impact on share price. 
Bank Buy ZonesRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated BuyNAB24.80 - 24.50   09/05/2012BuyANZ23.20 - 23.10  09/05/2012Buy WBC22.45 - 22.25  09/05/2012Buy CBA51.50 - 51.30   09/05/2012Portfolio LongsRecommendationCodePrice TargetStop Last updated AccumulateAIX    AccumulateTCL    AccumulateSYD    AccumulateQAN     AccumulateVAH< $0.41+ $0.80 07/05/2012AccumulateIIN    AccumulateGCS    Long BuyMQG $34.50$26.7509/05/2012Accumulate Property trusts - see full report.
 

Morning Analysis

  • Eurozone debt issues are resurfacing which are adding to downward pressure on equities and further cementing our short term negative view, while also supporting the outlook for QE3 from the Fed in 2nd half 2012.
  • Price action continues to be broadly choppy and performance in line without outlook is set to continue. Focus still remains on downside limit of 1315/1310
  • Price action is very similar to April-June 2011 where QE2 was drawing to a close. Operation “twist” ends in June 2012.
  • Continue to expect the characteristics of this consolidation to be 3-5 days down touching a new retracement low and then recovering sharply for 2-3 days. Similar price action in the April-June period of 2010 & 2011.
  • On weakness we are likely to begin to see talk of potential QE3 emerging which is still our assumption for July-August. Fed cannot afford to let this economic recovery stall, particularly housing market.
  • New highs to be seen after this pullback is complete in 2nd half of 2012. Until then there is no need to chase stocks or breakouts. 
  • ASX 200 breakout and subsequent reversal confirms our view that entry levels must be done on pullbacks and the local RBA rate cuts are being offset with global financial market volatility.
  • The ASX 200 is experiencing a battle between the outperformance of interest rate sensitive stocks and the underperformance of resources and industrial services.
  • ASX 200 likely to find support around 4250/4200 – trendline support from the August lows
  • As noted last week, the recent strong price gains in the past few weeks in property trusts, utilities and banks have reached their maximum in the short-term and are expected to see some profit taking emerge. Charts were shown last week highlighting the overbought nature of these stocks. Still medium/long-term bullish on these stocks but looking for better entry levels. We are currently witnessing a pullback in these stocks and in the next fortnight ideal buying levels will emerge.
  • Best buying levels will emerge closer to 21/30 ma levels where prices typically find support in strong trends. As a rule of thumb look for buying levels at these points.
  • Resources broadly struggling/consolidating. Oil stocks particularly under heavy pressure. Still looking to largely avoid the sector (except for specific circumstances or trading opportunities) until 2nd half 2012.
  • Stocks benefiting from weak A$ also poised to enjoy broader support.
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Wed, 09 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/trade-ideas-may-9-2012/<![CDATA[Morning Analysis May 9, 2012]]>http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/morning-analysis-may-9-2012/

Morning Analysis

  • Eurozone debt issues are resurfacing which are adding to downward pressure on equities and further cementing our short term negative view, while also supporting the outlook for QE3 from the Fed in 2nd half 2012.
  • Price action continues to be broadly choppy and performance in line without outlook is set to continue. Focus still remains on downside limit of 1315/1310
  • Price action is very similar to April-June 2011 where QE2 was drawing to a close. Operation “twist” ends in June 2012.
  • Continue to expect the characteristics of this consolidation to be 3-5 days down touching a new retracement low and then recovering sharply for 2-3 days. Similar price action in the April-June period of 2010 & 2011.
  • On weakness we are likely to begin to see talk of potential QE3 emerging which is still our assumption for July-August. Fed cannot afford to let this economic recovery stall, particularly housing market.
  • New highs to be seen after this pullback is complete in 2nd half of 2012. Until then there is no need to chase stocks or breakouts. 
  • ASX 200 breakout and subsequent reversal confirms our view that entry levels must be done on pullbacks and the local RBA rate cuts are being offset with global financial market volatility.
  • The ASX 200 is experiencing a battle between the outperformance of interest rate sensitive stocks and the underperformance of resources and industrial services.
  • ASX 200 likely to find support around 4250/4200 – trendline support from the August lows
  • As noted last week, the recent strong price gains in the past few weeks in property trusts, utilities and banks have reached their maximum in the short-term and are expected to see some profit taking emerge. Charts were shown last week highlighting the overbought nature of these stocks. Still medium/long-term bullish on these stocks but looking for better entry levels. We are currently witnessing a pullback in these stocks and in the next fortnight ideal buying levels will emerge.
  • Best buying levels will emerge closer to 21/30 ma levels where prices typically find support in strong trends. As a rule of thumb look for buying levels at these points.
  • Resources broadly struggling/consolidating. Oil stocks particularly under heavy pressure. Still looking to largely avoid the sector (except for specific circumstances or trading opportunities) until 2nd half 2012.
  • Stocks benefiting from weak A$ also poised to enjoy broader support
 

Global Prime Analyst Reports Disclaimer

 

If there is any advice contained in this post it is general advice only and has been prepared by Global Prime Pty Ltd ABN 74 146 086 802 AFSL 385620 or one of its related entities. Global Prime has made every effort to ensure the information provided is correct however Global Prime makes no representations nor any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date. To the extent permitted by law, Global Prime accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice. Global Prime, its associates, officers or employees may also have interests in the financial products referred to in this post by acting in various roles. They may buy or sell the financial products as principal or agent and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with any recommendations (if any) in this information. Global Prime or its associates may also receive fees or brokerage for acting in the above capacities. Global Prime does not guarantee the integrity of any posts or linked files. The view or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the view or opinions of Global Prime. All charts are created using Metastock or Proview software and content is sourced from tradeideas.com.

To contact Global Prime:
Call +612 8277 6655
Email info@globalprime.com.au 

 
]]>Wed, 09 May 2012 00:00:00 -1000http://www.globalprime.com.au/global-reports/morning-analysis-may-9-2012/