Posted on: 03 Apr, 2019
The Yo-Yo type movements in the Sterling continue, this time what we saw was a spontaneous reversal back to the upside as algos and fast money piling into the GBP after news broke out that UK PM May is open for a dialogue with the Labour party to unlock the Brexit conundrum.
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The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the market conditions. The report takes an in-depth look of market dynamics, factoring in fundamentals, technicals, inter-market in order to determine daily biases and assist one’s decisions on a regular basis. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube.
The Yo-Yo type movements in the Sterling continue, this time what we saw was a spontaneous reversal back to the upside as algos and fast money piling into the GBP after news broke out that UK PM May is open for a dialogue with the Labour party to unlock the Brexit conundrum. If only it was as easy as it sounds! I continue to reiterate, as a warning to intraday traders, the GBP remains completely taken hostage by a market entirely driven on a Brexit headline-by-headline basis. The Japanese Yen exhibited a combatant profile through Wednesday, despite in the grand scheme of things, it continues to be the main underperformer as 'risk on' has recently taken over vividly. The Aussie was sold on the back of a more dovish RBA, even if the trappy nature of the currency due to its low vol and a stellar Aus retail sales, alongside positive news on the US-China trade talks, have now reverted a large part of the losses incurred in the last 24h. The Kiwi is still piggybacking the Aussie amid the lack of individual drivers. The CAD and the USD continue to attract steady flows, even if it's looking as though the EUR/USD and as a consequence, the DXY, may be at an inflection point as the cycle reaches full maturity.
By the close of NY on April 2nd, the overall risk appetite waned a tad although it’s too premature to determine whether or not it may lead to a permutation into ‘risk-off’ flows coming back. For now, we are lacking sufficient evidence, as the price action in equities and fixed income (SP500 & US30Y as bellwethers) appear to be entering a stage of consolidation rather than new initiated selling pressures. The drop in the DXY during the late hours of the US is a sign that risk conditions remain fairly relaxed, but the bullish micro flows into the Japanese Yen as per the upward slope of the 25HMA Yen index (first time since March 28th) should be a source to be cautious and wait for further technical evidence. When looking at industrial metals the likes of Copper vs Gold, the ratio has been coming down this week, but it looks as though the corrective price action is suggestive of profit-taking flows vs renewed sell-side interested. Similarly, for the interest of ‘risk on’ conditions, the Oil vs Gold ratio remains very elevated, a clear communication that the market keeps betting on global growth picking up. When analyzing the VIX (vol index), it exchanges hands near the lows of its ongoing bearish cycle, while US credit markets, as depicted by the HYG vs IG ratio (junk bonds vs investment-grade bonds) also remains in a broadly bullish trend ever since the bottom found on March 8th. On credit markets, the Research Team at Morgan Stanley issued a warning in the last 24h, noting that “while US corporate bond markets have continued to rally, with high yield credit spreads tightening by 15bp yesterday – representing their biggest one day tightening since January – it seems investors have ignored weakening credit fundamentals as the first quarter saw the most credit rating downgrades for US companies relative to upgrades since the beginning of 2016, according to Bloomberg.”
EUR/USD: Reaches Confluence Support + 100% Proj Target
The exchange rate looks set to be in a late maturity state as part of its bearish cycle, if one is to judge by the critical support we’ve reached at 1.1180-85, but most importantly, how we’ve reached it. The sell-side campaign from the highs of 1.1440 has come in 5 legs, with each impulsive leg down decreasing in magnitude and velocity as the blue rectangle measured moves reflect (170p, 108p, 63p). The price has now reached what may potentially become the ultimate target where a period of distribution occurs before an attempt to build up a fresh upside bias on the basis of an exhausting cycle due to the completion of its 5 legs sequence (3 impulsive down, 2 corrective up). To strengthen the bullish case scenario, the descending trendline in red should be violated and acceptance found, ideally, above 1.1230, which coincides with the midpoint of the last consolidation pattern. It’s worth noting the extreme accuracy in terms of price reactions to each an every 100% proj target hit.
USD/JPY: Testing 111.15-20 Confluence Support
Judging by how the bullish trend has panned out since prices bottom out sub 110.00, it looks as though the US ISM-induced spike is still part of an incomplete 3 leg upcycle, in which we would still be missing another push into new highs. The fact that the bullish extension off 110.00 on March 28th went for a 141p run, suggest there is still an awful lot of buyers committed, given that in terms of magnitude, such push achieved almost 50% as much as the previous 1st push of nearly 100p. The first conviction test for buyers is occurring as I type, as an area of strong confluence at 111.15-20 (ascending trendline + resistance turned support) is being tested. The price has pulled back, as it’s been the case in the entire sequence of movements, at the 100% proj target. It’s worth noting that even if we were to see further setbacks of the bull run, as long as the deeper ascending trendline originating off sub 110.00 is violated, this is a market with still credence to be bought from a technical perspective. As we shift our focus towards intermarket flows, the recent rampant run in the S&P 500, US yields and the overall bullish stance in the DXY offers a positive background. It’s important to monitor any expected weakness in the DXY, given the late stage cycle in EUR/USD, as that may create additional sell-side pressure, conditioned to the performance of equities and bonds.
AUD/USD: Same Old Trappy Story
If you are looking for a market with the traits of being extremely choppy and trappy in nature, look no further than the exchange rate of the Aussie vs the US Dollar. It’s all about grabbing pockets of liquidity whenever possible to revert the price back to the mean. One could argue that in the grand scheme of things, the main trend is still down, at least that’s what the last 2 weeks of price action seem to suggest with 3 peaks reached, each lower than the prior, allowing us to draw a descending trendline. However, there remains a deficiency in conviction by sell-side accounts to break through the 7050c. With each attempt ever since the 2nd week of March finding consistent demand imbalances. The outlook for the range to extend and the Aussie to recover on the back of the RBA dovish outcome is definitely on the cards, especially following a blockbuster Aus retail sales report and the underpinning of intermarket flows, where equities and the DXY + Yuan (inverted) support the buy-side narrative in the next 24h, even if the Australian vs US bond yield spread makes new lows.
BTC/USDT: Blink & You Missed It
The explosive move by BTC from levels near 4k up towards the 5K vicinity represents the achievement of the 100% proj target based on market structure symmetry. The bottom of the consolidation that took place through Q1 ‘19 was about 3.2k, and in light of the range breakout being confirmed after 4.1-2k gave in (depending on exchanges), it’s to expect that the run will most likely run out of juice in the 5-5.2k vicinity. This is a level that we’d call the macro 100% proj target, which also happens to coincide with the low of the first impulsive selloff in BTCUSDT following the resolution of its long-held low of 6k through H2 ‘18. Note, there is another 100% proj target that has been surpassed (micro), which has served well as a reference to reinstate long positions by intraday traders, as the 2nd chart clearly reflects.
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